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May 20, 2007

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Val Larsen

I doubt that Bloomburg would take more votes from the Republicans than from the Democrats. New York mayors are likely to have more natural appeal in Blue than in Red states. If he were to carry, say, New York, that wouldn't come out of the Republican column. It is hard to think of states he might carry (or constituencies) that wouldn't be more likely to subtract from the Democrat vote total than from the Republican total. Perot had cranky, Buchannanite populist credentials that cut into Repubican votes and elected Clinton. But Bloomburg isn't positioned like Perot. I'm pretty sure he would take votes equally from both parties or more from the Democrats--and again, if he carried any states, they would be Blue not Red.

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