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September 26, 2007

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Nato

If approximately 50% of GDP growth since 2000 has been housing-related*, then one might legitimately worry a great deal about the economy. I don't personally know enough to have a solid opinion there, but I will say that a lot of people own houses and/or are on the housing market, and for them, the prospect of a more severe housing market downturn may loom more scarily than other indicators.

*I have seen it estimated thus, but in some weekly newsrag from which I didn't catch the source. I'd have to research before I'd decide if I believe this.

Nathan Smith

I suppose people could be answering the "wrong direction" question on the economy prospectively, i.e., "Well, the economy's good now, but I'm afraid it might be headed down in the next year..." I tend to think poll questions and/or people aren't that subtle. Anyway, while a recession is possible, not too many economists think it's likely-- as Mellman reports, they're anticipating 2% growth or so. I think people think that 2% growth is "the economy moving in the wrong direction." That's why I call them spoiled.

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