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July 29, 2008

Comments

Charlie

InTrade is all the news you need - and it still has Obama by 2 to 1. It's a little far out for prediction markets to be perfectly reliable, but I'd still put my money there sooner than I'd trust in polls.

I hope the summer is treating you well.

Nathan Smith

But InTrade can get it wrong, and two instances are particularly relevant. (a) InTrade had McCain at 9% odds to win the Republican nomination at one point. (b) InTrade had Obama at 90%+ to win the New Hampshire Democratic primary and deliver Hillary a knockout blow. InTrade has overestimated Obama, and underestimated McCain, before.

Lately, with first super-high-priced housing and then super-high-priced oil having proven to be in significant degree bubbles, the efficient markets hypothesis is not looking too good. If I were a betting man, I'd definitely take those odds.

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