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April 23, 2010



I really don't think it will pass constitutional muster. If implemented, it would quickly generate a bevy of cases that will demonstrate how terrible a law it is, but I suspect it'll be stayed before it gets that far. That's almost perfect for Republicans in Arizona, because it directs anger safely at the judiciary without creating embarrassing excesses that strip away the illusion that the law is only about punishing evildoers. I think it plays much worse in the rest of the country, but it's probably not going to stay high-enough profile to matter in general election contests. It would hurt McCain if he were to attempt another national campaign, but I would bet he's nauseated by the idea after his experiences of the last couple years. So, I suspect he's supporting a law that will never be implemented so as not to end his run in AZ.

I'mm by no means a fan of McCain, but I would tend to agree with Nathan's suggestion that he doesn't really support the bill. He's just a canny politician in a tight spot.

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