Suppose you're a dictator, and you want public opinion to have a certain structure. That is, on each of an array of salient questions, you want certain views to be widespread, and certain other views to be scarce or non-existent. Most obviously, you want people to have a sufficiently favorable opinion of yourself to support you, and certainly not to rebel against you. You may not-- at least not at first, before power has gone to your head-- want to insist that they idolize you or regard you as some sort of infallible, quasi-divine hero. You might even recognize your own fallibility and be glad to have a limited amount of loyal opposition to protect you from your own mistakes. You want people to be in favor of the law and against corruption... though perhaps not too strongly, since you might want to break your own laws, and you don't want the inevitable corruption of some of your officials to serve as a pretext for your overthrow. You want people, perhaps, to be religious, to the extent that religion undergirds the social order, but not enough for religious leaders to be able to de-legitimize you at will. You want people to hate your country's enemies, but not to carry xenophobia to the extent of being unable to ape useful foreign ideas or innovations. You enjoy the arts yourself and you know that they help the people to enjoy life, so you want artists to go on working; you may even want the arts to flourish in a certain way. You know that many heads are better than one, so you don't want to turn your whole citizenry into mindless parrots. In short, you want to affect the climate of public discourse, to set limits to it, without making it stifling; to prune (varying the metaphor) the tree of culture, while keeping it fruitful. Can you achieve this?
One factor that makes it difficult is that the costs of speech acts are affected by other speech acts. Think of the decision to speak as a quasi-economic decision, in which individuals act as rational agents weighing costs and benefits. Among the costs and benefits are praise (a benefit) and blame (a cost) from others. Of course, the praising and blaming are themselves speech acts, made by other individuals on rational grounds, taking into account costs and benefits. A person's real beliefs also affect the content of their speech acts, in (at least) two (potential) ways: (1) a person may experience the disutility of cognitive dissonance if they express opinions which are not their own, and (2) it is easier to express one's real beliefs than to express false beliefs (which involves not only efforts of imagination, but also risks of inconsistency: you have to keep track of your own lies, lest you be caught contradicting yourself). Of course, over time, speech acts will affect beliefs.
Now, suppose a dictator penalizes a certain kind of speech act. For example, Hitler puts limits on the degree of approval of the English that may be expressed. The first effect is to greatly reduce the amount of excessively pro-English speech. However, pro-English speech acts also affect the cost of anti-English speech acts. For a ferocious Anglophobe, one of the costs of speaking his mind is that he may be loudly scorned by ardent Anglophiles. If the strongest Anglophiles now find it expedient to lay low, the English-haters will feel more free to speak out. That, in turn, raises the cost of speech for moderate Anglophiles, who may begin to keep quiet, not because they are afraid of the law-- they are not so pro-English as to offend the police-- but because of the unpleasantness of being contradicted and insulted by newly noisy Anglophobes, and because they find they don't get the praise they use to enjoy from the stronger Anglophiles. If (a) the underlying distribution of real attitudes towards England remains constant in the short run, (b) there is diminishing marginal utility of speech for all speakers, and (c) dissimulation is costly, there should be some equilibrium at which a new climate of political discourse is stable. But it will not simply be the ex ante climate of discourse minus its most ardently pro-English wing. The center of gravity of the discourse climate will probably shift more than the dictator wants in the short run, and even more so in the long run, as the new climate of discourse changes the distribution of underlying attitudes.
I think a model along these lines could explain a lot. G.K. Chesterton, admiring Thomas Aquinas, lambasts the later medieval schoolmen for the way they trivialized his intellectual legacy and brought it into disrepute. But the reason is not far to seek! The Catholic Church made the fatal mistake of not respecting freedom of thought. To think was to risk being defined as a heretic. So of course thinkers took less risky, and so less brave, less creative, more trivial lines of thought, retreating from substance into syllogisms. In similar fashion, Soviet thinkers excelled in mathematics but not economics or history. In contemporary Russia, the government regulates the liberal press, with the effect, not wholly intended I think, of giving more space for forms of nationalistic illiberalism which the liberal (in the broadest sense) media of the West effectively excoriate. And in the Muslim world, governments that muzzle pro-democratic voices end up fueling Islamist extremism that is dangerous even to them.
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